Monetary Policy impotence
Monetary Policy impotence
ofInterestNZ
6 min - Sep 12, 2008
Panel 1
OCR cut wont matter much
RBNZ has slow super tanker
RBA has a jet boat
Panel 2
Lets explain
87% of mortgages fixed
NZ$52 bln rolls over soon
Most set 2 yrs ago at 8-8.5%
Will reset now around 8.5-9%
Panel 3
Effective mortgage rate rising
Will drop just 10bps in 3 yrs
Thats the RBNZ forecast
Yet OCR to fall 150 bps
Panel 4
Why wont mortgage rates fall
Foreign funding up 150-200bps
Banks owe NZ$135 bln overseas
Open economy No choice
We castrated our own RBNZ
Panel 5
However, RBA moves immediate
75% of loans are variable rate.
Changes take 1 week
Immediate effect
Panel 6
We need a positive yield curve
Should RBNZ cut drastically?
No. But worth considering
May happen anyway
Panel 7
Foreigners may increase rates
May see us as risky
NZ debt higher than US debt
Net a jet boat
